View Full Version : Fantasy Football: Last-minute start/sit for Week 4

17.11.2018, 04:30
Somehow it’s already Week 4 in the NFL (weird) and byes have already started (weirder). For fantasy players that starts to shorten the pool of available players and can sometimes put a little more pressure on start/sit decisions. Well Cheap Dalvin Tomlinson Jersey (http://www.giantscheapshops.com/cheap-authentic-dalvin-tomlinson-jersey) , luckily we’re here to help ... hopefully. Running backStart: Chris Carson, Seattle SeahawksSeattle took a running back in the first round, yet the Seahawks have not let that stop Chris Carson from reigning as the No. 1 back. Carson has outcarried Rashaad Penny 45-20 and outsnapped him 49.5 percent to 28.7 percent on the season. That was a 32-3 and 74 percent to 14 percent advantage last week against the Cowboys. The Seahawks want to run the ball and they’re playing the Cardinals, who have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.Start: Phillip Lindsay, Denver BroncosRoyce Freeman has a 36-33 rushing attempt over Lindsay this season, but that’s partly because Lindsay was ejected after just four rushing attempts this past week for throwing a punch. Still, Freeman only got 13 carries on the day. Lindsay has been the Broncos’ top back and per Next Gen Stats, he’s been the most “efficient” runner in the league with just 2.73 yards run per positive yard gained. The Broncos might find themselves in a shootout with the Kansas City Chiefs — Devontae Booker is the team’s top receiving back — but the Chiefs are also giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs.Sit: Peyton Barber, Tampa Bay BuccaneersBarber is Tampa Bay’s top back, but his production hasn’t really supported that role. He has just 124 yards on 43 carries and has only four targets and one reception for seven yards in the passing game. Barber and the Buccaneers are playing the Chicago Bears who have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs and have faced the fifth-fewest rushing attempts through three weeks.Sit: Dion Lewis, Tennessee TitansThis year was supposed to be different. The Titans were going to run an NFL offense and the signing of Dion Lewis was a key. But Marcus Mariota has been hurt and the offense really hasn’t taken off. Lewis hasn’t had more than five receptions in a game this season and that came in Week 1 and he only has 193 yards from scrimmage. Now Tennessee will face the Eagles, who are second in DVOA against the run, 10th against running backs in the passing game, and have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs so far. Wide receiverStart: Mike Williams, Los Angeles ChargersMike Williams is finding his place in the Chargers offense. He’s the No. 2 wide receiver — third in targets behind Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon. Allen has yet to practice this week, which could even increase Williams’s role. The San Francisco 49ers are likely to be without Richard Sherman and have struggled to find a second corner to play across from him. The Chargers haven’t gotten the attention of the Chiefs, Buccaneers, or Rams, but through three weeks they lead the league in percentage of offensive plays that have gained 20 or more yards. Williams has a team-leading 17.2 yards per reception.Start: Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati BengalsBoyd has unquestionably taken over as the Bengals’ No. 2 receiver. He’s second in targets, receptions, and touchdowns — all behind A.J. Green. He also has six receptions and a touchdown in each of the past two games. Cincinnati has been the seventh-most pass-heavy team this season and will be facing a Falcons defense that has struggled to stop the pass. Atlanta is 23rd against opposing No. 2 receivers. Sit: Amari Cooper, Oakland RaidersIn three games, Cooper has seen three, 10, and five targets. He’s had one, 10, and two receptions. He’s being out-targeted by Jared Cook and has the same number of targets as Jalen Richard. That production probably isn’t going to get much better against a Browns teams that has shut down opposing wide receivers. Cleveland is no worse than eighth in DVOA defending against all positions in the passing game except for running back, where the Browns are 31st. Sit: Corey Davis, Tennessee TitansEverything about Corey Davis screams production, except for the actual production. He has a 30 percent target share (ninth-highest in the league), has gotten half of Tennessee red zone targets, and has the third-highest rate of his team’s air yards. But all of that has led to 13 receptions, 151 yards, and no touchdowns. A productive game should be coming eventually, but if you have better options, you might be better off waiting for it with him on your bench.Tight endStart: Trey Burton, Chicago BearsYou probably had higher hopes if you drafted Trey Burton. He’s been around TE16 for the season, which is streamable territory. But this week could be the week Burton and the Bears offense gets on track. Chicago is playing Tampa Bay http://www.giantscheapshops.com/cheap-authentic-alec-ogletree-jersey , a team with linebackers who struggle in coverage. The Buccaneers are 25th in DVOA against tight ends and have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. This, hopefully, is the Burton week you’ve been waiting for.Sit: George Kittle, San Francisco 49ersThis pains me because I’m a big fan of George Kittle’s game, but everything is working against him this week. He has C.J. Beathard at quarterback and will face a Chargers defense that is second in DVOA against tight ends and has allowed an average of 29 yards to tight ends and the third-fewest fantasy points per game.Davis Webb Week 2 film study: Reading the tweets, and throwing the ball better Davis Webb read the tweets.It has become one of the more common tropes on everyone’s favorite social media website. Usually implemented when an athlete is struggling to perform to their standards, those watching and live-tweeting the game start to get their digs in. However, if and when the athlete turns their performance around, other users are quick to chime in with “[Insert name here] read the tweets.” The implication being that the athlete in question saw what was being said, and was somehow inspired to play better. I mean 鈥erhaps Twitter users have a somewhat overinflated sense of importance, but that’s an issue for another time 鈥owever, one might believe that New York Giants’ quarterback Davis Webb read the tweets after his rebound performance against the Detroit Lions. After a preseason debut that saw Webb struggle against the Cleveland Browns, the second-year quarterback turned in a much more impressive performance against the Detroit Lions, completing 14 of 20 passes for 140 yards and a touchdown, with the short touchdown pass to Wayne Gallman capping off a lengthy 17-play drive that saw Webb make a few impressive throws. After his performance against the Browns, many evaluators — myself included — were wondering if Webb could improve in certain areas. As I concluded in this piece:So while Webb’s production was improved from the first preseason game, how did he fare in these areas? As we will see, the improvement was there as well.Release pointYou really did not need the film to conclude that Webb missed on some throws against the Browns, completing just 9 of 22 passes can lead someone down that road. But when you turned on the tape you saw that the young QB was missing on throws, particularly high, and even on some of the passes he completed, the throw seemed high. Perhaps he was too “amped up” for the debut, but when looking at his game I found an inconsistency in his release point. Some passes were thrown with more of an “over-the-top” delivery, while others were delivered with a lower release point, much closer to his ear/helmet. The consistency I was hoping to see? That returned against the Lions.Webb’s first impressive throw of the night, and perhaps his best, came midway through the first quarter on a 3rd and 17 play. The Giants come out with Webb (5) in the shotgun and in a 2x2 formation, with Evan Engram (88) and Sterling Shepard (87) in a wing alignment on the left. The Lions show Cover 1 on this play with cornerbacks in press alignment to each side of the field:Shepard runs a corner route, working against man coverage. Nevin Lawson (24) is the cornerback in coverage, and he is in very good position here, right on Shepard’s back hip. This requires Webb to make the perfect throw ... and he does:What stands out is the release point. Webb shows a very crisp release here, much closer to the ear. With this throw under his belt I wanted to see if later throws in the game were delivered with the same type of release.Later in the game Webb connected on a deep shot to Russell Shepard. Watch how the release point on this throw mirrors the corner route to Sterling Shepard:As you can see here, both on the live shot and the replay, Webb’s release point is very similar to the release point on the earlier throw. This consistency in release point will contribute to a consistency in ball placement. Both of these throws were put in a perfect spot, and it begins with the release.In a moment we’ll talk about the decision-making process from Webb against Detroit, but on both of these plays you have to be impressed with the decision-making and execution as well. On the first, Webb knows he has Cover 1, so he goes to the best man coverage beater on the play, the corner route from Shepard working away from safety help. On the second throw Cheap Jon Halapio Jersey (http://www.giantscheapshops.com/cheap-authentic-jon-halapio-jersey) , Webb uses a pump fake, as well as his eyes, to influence the safety to one side of the field before dropping in a perfect throw to Russell Shepard on the right side. Very well done.Decision makingWhile the thought process on the previous two plays showed an improvement over the first preseason game, I want to highlight two other plays from Webb against the Lions that show similar progress. The first is a first-and-10 play later in the first quarter, during New York’s lengthy 17-play drive that culminated in a touchdown pass from Webb to Gallman. The Giants come out with Webb under center and with 21 offensive personnel in the game, in an offset I-formation:Look at the defensive alignment. Because of the down-and-distance, as well as the offensive personnel, the Lions have their base 3-4 look in the game, and walk the strong safety down toward the box over Engram. Detroit is expecting a run.But the Giants use a play-action pass here, and after coming out of the fake Webb looks immediately to Cody Latimer (12), the receiver on the right side of the formation, who is running a Bang-8 post route:What I love about this decision is two-fold. First, Webb identifies a defensive weakness in the pre-snap phase and immediately exploits it. When Detroit walks their strong safety down toward the box over Engram, that creates a window to the other side of the field, where Latimer is running his route. Had the formation been different, with Engram on the right side, the SS would be in that alley, taking away the throwing lane. Second, Webb’s decision is immediate. Because he sees the defense pre-snap and reads it well, he knows that he has the throw to Latimer. So he comes out of the play-fake firing, and the Giants move the chains.The touchdown pass to Gallman highlights the potential of this Giants offense to create mismatches, regardless of who is lining up under center. Facing a third-and-goal at the Detroit 8-yard line, the Giants line up with Webb in the shotgun and implement a 3x1 alignment:Here is where the Giants can be very difficult to defend in the red zone. New York goes with a “Y-iso” formation here, putting Engram alone on the left in the 3x1 formation, with Gallman in the backfield next to Webb, shaded to the left. Up in the booth before the snap, Chris Spielman, a former NFL linebacker himself, begins talking about how a defense needs to “highlight” Engram in this situation, given his size and ability in the red zone. Detroit runs Cover 2 Man Under on this play, and as Engram releases vertically he draws not only the cornerback, but he also draws the attention of the safety to that side of the field. That leaves Gallman isolated on second-year linebacker Jerrad Davis (40). Gallman runs a quick Angle route, flashing to the outside before cutting back on a diagonal across the middle, and the young linebacker overcommits to the outside:Easy throw, easy catch. Again, Webb sees the mismatch in the pre-snap phase and knows exactly how to exploit the situation. Webb’s outing against Detroit was certainly a step in the right direction. Whether he can build on the positives from that performance remains to be seen, but Giants fans should feel a bit more optimistic about the second-year passer as the season approaches. Or you can just keep tweeting. Maybe Webb really does read the tweets ...